The Big Game and Hindsight Bias
After watching the post-game commentary after the Big Game, it appears that many commentators may have been suffering from Hindsight Bias.
Numerous “experts” claimed that the decision by the Seattle Seahawks to throw the ball on the 1-yard line was the “Worst Call in S.B. History.”
However, when trying to score from the 1-yard line, in the NFL there is a higher success rate when passing the ball! (At least for this 2014 season).
With a better throw (aimed at the receiver’s back-shoulder), or a more aggressive receiver (aggressively went for the ball), the Seahawks would have won the game on the slant pattern.
Was it the correct call? From a statistical standpoint, perhaps. Of course, one needs to factor in Marshawn Lynch “Beast Mode” capabilities…
We’ll never know the answer, but things are sometimes more complex than advertised.
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