Gold’s 3,000 Year Backtest–A New World Record!
Gold: The Best Performing Asset of the Last 3,000 Years?
- Claude Erb
- A version of the paper can be found here.
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Gold may have been the best performing asset of the last 3000, 2000 and 1000 years. Gold’s long-run real return has probably been close to zero. Gold could very well be the best performing asset of the next 3000 years.
One long term view of gold prices:
And another even longer view:
And the longest view on gold:
So looks like over the LONG-TERM gold maintains it’s value–maybe grows a bit–but comes with massive stomach churning volatility. Relative to other assets, that might actually be attractive. Then again, in the long-run we are all dead anyway.
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Definitions of common statistics used in our analysis are available here (towards the bottom)