Models vs. Experts # 11: Simple models beating the experts
The search for configural relationships in personality assessment: The diagnosis of psychosis vs. neurosis from the MMPI
- Goldberg, L. R.
- Multivariate Behavioral Research, 4, 523-536
- An online version of the paper can be found here
- Want a summary of academic papers with alpha? Check out our free Academic Alpha Database!
In 1956 Meehl predicted that the relationships between MMPI scores and the psychosis-neurosis diagnostic classification should be highly configural in character, and therefore that no linear combination of MMPI scores should be able to differentiate neurotic from psychotic patients as accurately as either experienced clinical psychologists or configural actuarial techniques. The present paper summarizes the findings from ten years of research on this question. While the research for configural actuarial procedures has led to a moderator variable, neither clinical experts, moderated regression analyses, profile typologies, the Perceptron algorithm, density estimation procedures, Bayesian techniques, nor sequential analyses-when cross-validated-have been-able to improve on a simple linear function. The implications of these negative findings for investigations of configural relationships with other problems are discussed.
The authors compare the diagnosis results for psychosis or neurosis across experts, complex models, and simple models.
Here are the results from the test with a few highlights for examples of the 1) human experts, 2) complex model, and 3) simple model.
Anyone else catching on to a pattern here? Simple beats complex and machines beat humans.
Note: This site provides NO information on our value investing ETFs or our momentum investing ETFs. Please refer to this site.
Join thousands of other readers and subscribe to our blog.
Please remember that past performance is not an indicator of future results. Please read our full disclosures. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Alpha Architect, its affiliates or its employees. This material has been provided to you solely for information and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer or any advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments and may not be construed as such. The factual information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by the author and Alpha Architect to be reliable but it is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to its accuracy and is not to be regarded as a representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor should the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Alpha Architect.
Definitions of common statistics used in our analysis are available here (towards the bottom)