Ben Bernanke as a GDP forecaster–UGLY!

Ben Bernanke as a GDP forecaster–UGLY!

July 16, 2013 Uncategorized
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(Last Updated On: May 9, 2014)

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered his testimony on July 18, 2007.

“Overall, the U.S. economy appears likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007 with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate close to the economy’s underlying trend…..The central tendency of the growth forecast, which are conditioned on the assumption of appropriate monetary policy, is for real GDP to expand roughly 21⁄4 to 21⁄2 percent this year and 21⁄2 to 23⁄4 percent in 2008……The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge up between 41⁄2 and 43⁄4 percent over the balance of this year and about 43⁄4 percent in 2008”


Real GDP QoQ%


Unemployment Rate


Mr. Ben is going to give some more projections tomorrow…
Fed’s Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to House
Date and Time 07/17/2013 08:30
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke delivers his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee, followed by questions from lawmakers. His prepared testimony will be released at 8:30 a.m. and the hearing will begin at 10 a.m. 
Should we Trust his words this time?


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About the Author

Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D.

After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned a PhD, and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray’s interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management that delivers affordable active exposures for tax-sensitive investors. Dr. Gray has published four books and a number of academic articles. Wes is a regular contributor to multiple industry outlets, to include the following: Wall Street Journal, Forbes,, and the CFA Institute. Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago and graduated magna cum laude with a BS from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.