Has the Value Investing Pain Train Ended?
Last year we highlighted what we deemed the “value investing pain train.”
In 2015, cheap high-quality stocks started getting crushed by expensive junk stocks. Here is a recap of the carnage.
In many respects, value investing is a lot like Terry Tate — the huge “office” linebacker that would crush employees who made mistakes. His nickname: the “pain train.”
SAT answer: Terry Tate is to office employees, as value investing is to investors.
The value investing pain train: a visualization
Let’s look at the progression of the value investing pain train.
Here is a link to the source data: Price/Quality portfolio data. We examine value-weight returns for the cheap high-quality quintile and the expensive low-quality quintile. The daily returns run from 1/1/2015 to 1/31/2016. Results are gross of fees. All returns are total returns and include the reinvestment of distributions (e.g., dividends).
- Beginning of summer…value is getting cheap.
- End of summer…value is super cheap.
- End of the year…value is a stupid strategy.
Fast forward to 2016. Below are the results for January from 1/1 to 1/31. Value started off on the wrong foot, possibly due to redemptions from 2015?
Is value ready for a rally? Or is this a head fake?
The value investing propaganda starting coming out hot and heavy in February. Rob Arnott led the charge at Research Affiliates, with a piece with an amazing title, “How Can Smart Beta go Horribly Wrong.” A simple summary is that value investing has gotten destroyed and seems like a great opportunity. Buy RAFI products. Now. The public relations effort on behalf of value investing seems to have worked: February was an epic month for all things that buy cheap out-of-favor firms.
Great news for all of us who traffic in the stock market’s trash can.
A logical conclusion from the analysis and commentary above might be to buy value. After all, value has sucked wind for a long time and a lot of folks have given up on the strategy. However, we should be careful with “logical” conclusions. As we’ve said time and time again, active value investing has been digging manager graveyards since 1900 and this form of investing is simple, but not easy. The chart in 2015 highlights that relative performance can get a lot worse before they get better. And trust us, the chart from 2015 is not the exception, but the rule. Value investing is a long-term strategy that cannot be timed. You buy the exposure over time, sock it away in a lock box, and don’t touch it–no matter what.
The winners in the value trade are those who can hold the strategy when many other market participants have given up. The pain train seems to have subsided–and we hope that is the case–but the reality is that all value investors must be mentally prepared to do what others cannot. Or in the words of Cliff Asness, be prepared to see the grim reaper at your door!***
Please remember that past performance is not an indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Alpha Architect, its affiliates or its employees. This material has been provided to you solely for information and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer or any advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments and may not be construed as such. The factual information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by the author and Alpha Architect to be reliable but it is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to its accuracy and is not to be regarded as a representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor should the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Alpha Architect.***
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