Dual Momentum on Individual Stocks. Wow.

Dual Momentum on Individual Stocks. Wow.

February 11, 2016 $mtum, Momentum Investing Research

Last updated on January 18th, 2017 at 03:23 pm

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Hot off the press and haven’t had time to reverse engineer and verify, but this is pretty interesting stuff at first glance.

The Enduring Effect of Time-Series Momentum on Stock Returns Over Nearly 100-Years

This study documents the significant profitability of “time-series momentum” strategies in individual stocks in the US markets from 1927 to 2014 and in international markets since 1975. Unlike cross-sectional momentum, time-series stock momentum performs well following both up- and down-market states, and it does not suffer from January losses and market crashes. An easily formed dual-momentum strategy, combining time-series and cross-sectional momentum, generates striking returns of 1.88% per month. We test both risk based and behavioral models for the existence and durability of time-series momentum and suggest the latter offers unique insights into its continuing factor dominance.

A picture is worth a 1,000 words:

dual momentum on stocks
The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect management or trading fees, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Additional information regarding the construction of these results is available upon request.


h.t., A. Miller @ http://www.miller-financial.com/ for sending our way!

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About the Author

Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D.

After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray received a PhD, and was a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray’s interest in entrepreneurship and behavioral finance led him to found Alpha Architect. Dr. Gray has published three books: EMBEDDED: A Marine Corps Adviser Inside the Iraqi Army, QUANTITATIVE VALUE: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors, and DIY FINANCIAL ADVISOR: A Simple Solution to Build and Protect Your Wealth. His numerous published works has been highlighted on CBNC, CNN, NPR, Motley Fool, WSJ Market Watch, CFA Institute, Institutional Investor, and CBS News. Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago and graduated magna cum laude with a BS from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.