Ben Graham Would be Proud: Fundamental Analysis Works
Here is an interesting working paper on the use of fundamental analysis in stock selection. The authors take a dynamic regression “machine learning-esque” approach to building out statistical fair-value Ben Graham and David Dodd would be proud. Of course, this isn’t surprising if you’ve read our treatise on systematic value investing.
Stock prices cannot be the outcome of a rational efficient market if fundamental analysis based on public information is profitable. Our approach to fundamental analysis estimates the intrinsic fair values of stocks from the most common quarterly balance sheet and income statement items that were last reported in Compustat. Taking the view of a statistician with little knowledge of the theory of finance, we show that the most basic form of fundamental analysis yields trades with risk-adjusted returns of up to 9% per year. The trading strategy relies on convergence of market prices to their fair values. The greatest rate of convergence occurs in the month after the mispricing signal and subsequently decays to zero over the subsequent 28 months. Profits from trading are present for both large and small firms in economically significant magnitudes.
The punchline is summarized in the chart below:
- Balance sheet and income sheet items seem helpful in predicting future returns
- Turnover/activity is required to exploit the edge
Please remember that past performance is not an indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Alpha Architect, its affiliates or its employees. This material has been provided to you solely for information and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer or any advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments and may not be construed as such. The factual information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by the author and Alpha Architect to be reliable but it is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to its accuracy and is not to be regarded as a representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor should the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Alpha Architect.***
If you liked this post, don't forget to subscribe to our blog.