The Big Game and Hindsight Bias

The Big Game and Hindsight Bias

February 2, 2015 Uncategorized
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(Last Updated On: February 2, 2015)

After watching the post-game commentary after the Big Game, it appears that many commentators may have been suffering from Hindsight Bias.

Numerous “experts” claimed that the decision by the Seattle Seahawks to throw the ball on the 1-yard line was the “Worst Call in S.B. History.”

However, when trying to score from the 1-yard line, in the NFL there is a higher success rate when passing the ball(At least for this 2014 season).

With a better throw (aimed at the receiver’s back-shoulder), or a more aggressive receiver (aggressively went for the ball), the Seahawks would have won the game on the slant pattern.

Was it the correct call? From a statistical standpoint, perhaps. Of course, one needs to factor in Marshawn Lynch “Beast Mode” capabilities…

We’ll never know the answer, but things are sometimes more complex than advertised.

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Definitions of common statistics used in our analysis are available here (towards the bottom)

About the Author

Jack Vogel, Ph.D.

Jack Vogel, Ph.D., conducts research in empirical asset pricing and behavioral finance, and is a co-author of DIY FINANCIAL ADVISOR: A Simple Solution to Build and Protect Your Wealth. His dissertation investigates how behavioral biases affect the value anomaly. His academic background includes experience as an instructor and research assistant at Drexel University in both the Finance and Mathematics departments, as well as a Finance instructor at Villanova University. Dr. Vogel is currently a Managing Member of Alpha Architect, LLC, an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor, where he heads the research department and serves as the Chief Financial Officer. He has a PhD in Finance and a MS in Mathematics from Drexel University, and graduated summa cum laude with a BS in Mathematics and Education from The University of Scranton.