Has Momentum Been “Arbed” Away?
Momentum Has Not Been ‘Overgrazed’: A Visual Overview in 10 Slides
- Claude B. Erb
- A version of the paper can be found here.
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The return to “momentum” does not seem to be the victim of “overgrazing”. Conceptually, overgrazing occurs when too much capital chases too few investment opportunities which in turn leads to low returns. The “equity risk premium”, the “size premium” and the “value premium” seem to be getting close to a no-man’s land of return-free risk. A high degree of belief in “the kindness of strangers” could be driving the low equity risk premium, size premium and value premium. A high degree of disbelief in momentum could be driving what appears to be a trend large cap momentum excess return of about 7%.
Momentum still has the mojo!
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Definitions of common statistics used in our analysis are available here (towards the bottom)