Models vs. Experts: #15: Do Behavioral cues matter?
Psychiatric diagnoses: A study of how they are made
- Kendell, R. E.
- British Journal of Psychiatry, 122, 437-445
- An online version of the paper can be found here
- Want a summary of academic papers with alpha? Check out our Academic Research Recap Category!
A series of videotapes of brief diagnostic interviews, lasting only five minutes each, were held with a series of 28 patients at the time of their admission to hospital and then presented to groups of experienced psychiatrists who were required to make a diagnosis and a number of other ratings for each….
The content of each interview was presented in 3 alternatives ways—as a videotape, as an audiotape, or as a written transcript. All the author’s test are targeted towards understanding how different aspects of the information set affect judgement accuracy and reliability.
The null hypothesis is that behavioral cues from audio and video will help a psychiatrist diagnosis behavioral problems–Seems reasonable.
Here are the core results from the test.
- The rater’s diagnoses were the same as the final hospital diagnosis in 48-50% after only 2 minutes of interview, and 60-64% at 5 minutes.
- Inner-rater agreement was over 75% under all 3 rating conditions.
The most fascinating result is that the transcript only information is the best information set to facilitate accurate and reliable forecasts. Behavioral cues had no ability to help predict behavioral issues.
Less is more. In the words of Kendell (p. 443):
…it is actually an advantage for the total quantity of information to be restricted.”
Thoughts on the paper?
Note: This site provides NO information on our value investing ETFs or our momentum investing ETFs. Please refer to this site.
Join thousands of other readers and subscribe to our blog.
Please remember that past performance is not an indicator of future results. Please read our full disclosures. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Alpha Architect, its affiliates or its employees. This material has been provided to you solely for information and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer or any advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments and may not be construed as such. The factual information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by the author and Alpha Architect to be reliable but it is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to its accuracy and is not to be regarded as a representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor should the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Alpha Architect.
Definitions of common statistics used in our analysis are available here (towards the bottom)